A machine learning model trained on 200,000+ Statcast game logs, anchored to the sharpest lines available. Every pick is +EV or it doesn't get posted.
START FREE TRIAL →Daily HR picks with player, book, odds, and unit size. Posted each morning before first pitch. Hourly line movement alerts sent if a pick's odds shift significantly.
MAIN CHANNELFull model output — EV%, simulation probability, Kelly sizing, Pinnacle line. For subscribers who want to dig into the numbers.
ANALYTICSMorning recap of yesterday's picks. Outcome tracking and running ROI updated daily.
RESULTSWe anchor every pick to the sharpest lines and sportsbooks available. If the sharp money doesn't agree there's value, the pick doesn't get posted.
Our model analyzes each batter's real matchup — park, pitcher, and recent form — to calculate their true probability of going deep that day. Backtested across 200,000+ real MLB game logs.
We compare retail odds at DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM to our model. Only plays with positive expected value get posted.